This is the second issue of regional renewal

Less than two months of the first round of regional elections, the campaign did engage still not opinion. The next election is not the spirit of the French, concerned by the crisis, the weather, or even impressed by the tragedy experienced by the Haitian. Not more than 10 of them reported having "talked" of this campaign, according to the barometer Opinionway (1). According to the Ifop (2) are 20 of the French who ensured that regional voting had occupied their conversations.

This broad indifference encourages host provided indications, at this stage, by surveys of voting intentions with the greatest care. Nevertheless, one thing appears certain. March 2010 regional repeated not the 2009 European. Last year, the performance of the presidential majority, which lists had advanced more than 10 points of the Socialist Party, had given the right winner-like. An impression reinforced by the underperformance of the PS, struck by Europe ecology to the General surprise.

This time, the rule of the game is however different. The regional competition takes place in two rounds, with a majority bonus, while that of the European was a single Tower governed by proportional representation. The political context is certainly hardly different. Today as in the spring of 2009, Nicolas Sarkozy has a strong disapproval. But this hostility to power creates precisely the conditions for convergence of the oppositional votes in the decisive round. It won't, this time to arrive Sunday evening in mind. It will also and especially prevail on the opponent in the second vote.

The UMP and its allies of the new Centre lists seem to be well placed to advance to the first round, those of the Socialists. Voting intentions polls assign a range of 30 to 33 in the first, against 21 to 23 in seconds (3). But left, totalling around 50 of the vote in the first round, has the potential of votes to win the regions in the second. The presidential majority is threatened by the addition of the various objections, from left, but also from the Modem or the extreme right even partially. The theory, checked in the presidential election of 2007, the ripple effect of a good score in the first round is when the party who enjoys is worn by a dynamic of hope. It is invalidated when it is subjected to a majority popular discontent.

The configuration of the vote is favourable to the PS, on the condition that he confirmed his status of dominant opposition party. This is the second issue of regional renewal. Environmentalists try to repeat their good score of European continuing to practise an electoral strategy of opening. At the present time, the surveys however are lists of Europe ecology significantly behind those of the PS, with 14 to 15 of voting intentions. It is possible that the protective theme for the Socialist Party (the "social shield") enables them to clearly back the advantage on their ambitious competitors and nevertheless partners...

This regional renewal will still be a test for the national Front. A priori, the context is very favourable to the extreme right. Nicolas Sarkozy has deeply disappointed the popular electorate which had brought its votes to the FN in recent decades. With the rise of Marine Le Pen, the Party finally displays a certain renewal. By reappear controversy about immigration, the debate on "national identity" finally offered the national Front enviable media visibility, as testified in the televised debate between Eric Besson Marine Le Pen.

Nothing says however that the FN is poised to achieve an impressive score. Its current estimates range from 7 to 10 of voting intentions, or a little above its bad outcome of the European (6.3 of the votes cast) but well below the figure for the regional of 2004 (14.7). A TNS-Sofres survey shows that the hearing of the ideas of the FN is still on the decline (4). The strong probable failure of popular will not help the far-right to reconnect with his old electoral vitality.