It is the paradox of the protective President

Safe acoup, 2009 will remain as the year hinge of the quinquennium of Nicolas Sarkozy, of the test of power. Year symbol in truth that this year mirror, which seems to reflect only the image of the mandate of the head of State. A first half successful, controlled, held, a second half missed, sustained, laborious. A first half climb, crowned by the very relative success but the success of the European elections of June. A second half down, sanctioned by the very wide misunderstanding of the opinion on the nomination of the son of the President, Jean Sarkozy, President of the institution of the quartier de la Défense (Epad) management.

Failover intervened in the return of the summer holidays. Two, Nicolas. True to the line of overreactions set at Toulon, September 25, 2008, on the momentum of the very active French EU Presidency, the head of State marked the first months of 2009 by his involvement in the international (at the G20 in London in early April), as in the Interior to help not only to the financial system but business (by cash loans) and employees threatened with losing their jobs (by the development of the activity) (partial). Although they do not have great significance in a vote massively shunned by voters, 28 obtained by the UMP-new Centre lists for the European elections of June sound, in contrast with the collapse of the Socialist Party, as a success of the President, past master in the art of transforming short victories in large triumphs.

While Nicolas Sarkozy ends, in early September, in a surprisingly favourable situation, a year of crisis management, the exercise of the power to move and his credit opinion is deteriorating, but quite atypical conditions. "Asymmetric", said Dominique Reynié, President of the Foundation for innovation policy. Because this phenomenon occurs essentially about frivolous phenomena on files more heavy that engage them, the newspaper of the French. Even more than the creation of a carbon tax, as the opening of the capital of the position, the removal of business tax - three reforms which could hardly be expected to take major political benefits-, it is the sequence of the three cases, Jean Sarkozy, Roman Polanski and Frédéric Miterrand, which seems to crystallize the alteration of the "magic Sarkozy". Charm operates more and signs of time, the majority became rebellious. Already quite distended with the French link seems broken. For the first time, Sarkozy seems to not understand those who elected him.

This is certainly that the repetition of misunderstandings acute, passengers, but they are in addition to a longer and heavier phenomenon. Between September 2008 and September 2009, the reformist President became protective President. In the polls, the French, although they him know little discretion him recognize real efficiency in the management of the crisis. In the barometer Viavoice - "Liberation" (), published December 14, 42 feel "positive" bankruptcy crisis, 57 "negative". Increased from 46 to 43, popularity is packed in a year, but it is not dropped sharply as was the case in early 2008, within the exhibition of his private life and his relationship with Carla Bruni. The drop in opinion remains at this stage, more qualitative than quantitative. "Nicolas Sarkozy is more seen as a symbol of hope", analysis Francois Miquet-Marty, Deputy Director General of Viavoice. In fact, the French now have a deep concern for the evolution of the purchasing power (84 of concerned, according to Viavoice), the future of employment (83), future economic growth (74).

Already facing a double challenge to the evidence of the achievement of his campaign promises and take advantage of its action against the crisis, the head of State must face another, from the perspective of 2012: become a carrier of the future. All his predecessors found themselves facing a more or less early moment of their mandate, to the structural phenomenon classic wear of power. Nicolas Sarkozy is not, but in his case, it is amplified by its entire mobilization in the service of the management of the economic recession rather than the pursuit of a future project. He played fully, or even surjoué, its role, but he is the victim. It is the paradox of the protective President. The crisis efforts trap the head of State in a now sought to forget more quickly.

At the end of this year of truth, the chance of the President, however, still have no rival on the right as on the left, able to embody the promise of a brighter future in the eyes of the French.