GDP is expected to decline next year from 0

The Spaniards, who have lived the last few months at the rate of daily consumer goods prices boom, of their mortgage costs soaring and a succession of announcements of social plans combine the word "crisis" for some time. According to a survey conducted in early September and published yesterday, the unemployment, affecting 600,000 people more close to a year, became the concern number one for 62 of them (i.e. 6 points more than before the summer), before the deterioration of the economic situation (54). This has increased the difference of perception with the Government.

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero team waited for the start of the summer to recognize the seriousness of the problems facing the country. And it applies mainly to international financial turbulence. This discrepancy is particularly reflected in the draft budget 2009, built on an assumption of growth of gross domestic product of 1 and an unemployment rate of 12.5. However, according to the CEOE, the main employer organization in the country, the Spanish economy is going into recession with a decline of 0.3 to 0.5 of GDP in the third quarter and a stronger deterioration over the last three months of the year. According to the specialists of the CEOE, 2009 would still more black, to the point that the number of job seekers could reach in 2010 the 3.5 million, or 15 of the workforce.

The Italians are little more reassured. Their economy is at a standstill, indicated Wednesday the monthly bulletin of the Central Bank. Employers provides even that GDP decrease by 0.5 in 2009. Industrial production declined in the first half, consumption recedes, and unemployment begins to climb again. On its side, the Caritas organization draws the alarm indicating that 15 million Italians are poor or running into poverty with an income of less than 1,000 euros per month for two people.

In fact, the drop in consumption herself well through the promotions of major distributors, which cease to offer "two products for the price of one alone" or a significant discount on following purchases. Even in Milan, the richest city of Italy, traders have lamented the absence of customer.

The British grind black. Between a photo of Kate Moss and an article on the latter fact various bloody, the tabloids are full of details on the fall of the real estate market, the escalation of the invoices or even difficult to agree a mortgage credit. Morale was already step well, but since the re-entry, households are starting to seriously worry for their jobs.

According to recent statistics, the United Kingdom has now 1.8 million unemployed ( 165,000 between July and September). In the countries of the near-full employment, the impact is considerable. The bar of the 2 million unemployed should be reached before Christmas, warns David Blanchflower, Member of the Bank of England monetary policy Committee.

Only good news, inflation, to 5.2 in September, reached a high. For the rest, British households have to understand that the worst was to come. GDP is expected to decline next year, from 0.1 to 0.3 economists.

The Germans are also white hair. The Minister for the economy, Michael Glos, yesterday seriously revised downward its forecast for growth in 2009: it aligned itself with the main economic institutes and table more than 0.2, instead of still 1.2 per cent last spring. Strongly export industries such as automotive, particularly should suffer. Michael Glos however intended to be optimistic, assuring that "the effects of the financial crisis on the other sectors of the economy are limited." It is not for the moment of the credit shortage. The labour market is, according to him, the number of unemployed to remain stable in 2009 than this year.

Michael Glos calls for tax cuts. The employers called him, the Government does not cut in spending, but on the contrary to accelerate development of airports, highways, power plants projects...